Pinnacle Rarities Featured Article

An Analysis of St. Gaudens Double Eagles: Price & Rarity

The St. Gaudens double eagle series is one of the most actively traded and popular series in all of United States numismatics. Because of this, it lends itself well to price and rarity analysis. The coins trade frequently enough that the price levels which are reported in the Coin Dealer Newsletter tend to be more accurate than in esoteric, thinly traded series. In addition, the numbers of coins graded by PCGS and NGC tend to have a more accurate count than in other series. These numbers are, of course, not perfect. But they are sophisticated enough that some interesting trends can be determined when they are studied.

Before we start, there are some important caveats that should be noted. For pricing, it should be noted that Gem Uncirculated (MS65) examples of rare dates typically command levels in excess of published pricing. Levels for MS63 and MS64 coins tend to be more in line with current market reality. The population figures from PCGS and NGC are skewed by resubmissions. This is especially true for very rare issues where a one point difference in grade (say MS64 vs. MS65) can make a huge difference in value. In this case, an MS64 may be submitted a dozen times or more in an attempt to get a higher grade.

The pricing below is based on the most recent (October 2005) Coin Dealer Newsletter “ask” levels. These are suggested retail levels. The number of coins graded reflects only those seen by PCGS. This is not because PCGS is “better” than NGC but because the amount of data from both services would be unwieldy and it was easier for us to select one service than try and wrestle with unmanageable numbers. (Note that populations are based on late September 2005 figures and may have changed since this article was released).

For the sake of convenience (and so we are not comparing apples to oranges) we have decided to break the St. Gaudens series into three groups: common dates, scarce dates and rare dates. Here is an exact breakdown of these groups:

Before analyzing these dates in Mint State grades and comparing price levels to rarity let’s take a quick overview. The following charts take each of the three groups and list the number of coins graded in all grades (circulated and Uncirculated) by PCGS and rank them from top to bottom.

Analysis: There are no real surprises here but a few things do come to mind. First of all, one has to wonder if 1924 double eagles are still being made in some basement in China as the number of coins still coming into the market is nothing short of staggering. It is curious to note how much more common this issues has become than the 1927. Another interesting fact is the number of 1914-S double eagles that have been graded. This has now become the most common mintmarked issue in the series.

(a)

Analysis: Either the original mintage figure for High Reliefs, variously reported at 11,250 or 12,367 coins, is too low or an astonishingly high percentage of the original mintage figure was saved. The 1910-1915 date run has become far more available in recent years, thanks to discoveries of hoards in Europe and Central America. The same holds true for the formerly-rare mintmarked issues from the 1920’s which have (with the exception of the 1925-S and 1926-D) gone from rare to scarce issues; at least in terms of their overall rarity.

(a)

Analysis: These are the dates that are most likely to have inflated populations as a result of multiple submissions. This appears to be the case on dates such as the 1921 (which has inflated populations in AU58 and MS62), 1927-S (with inflated populations in MS62 and MS63) and the 1929 (inflated populations in MS63 and, especially, in MS64). Each deserves a little more in-depth analysis.

The 1921 tends to come flatly struck and there is often little cosmetic difference between an AU58 and an MS61/62. However, there is a huge difference in value. This makes it very feasible for the owner of a nice “slider” 1921 to submit it many, many times before giving up (or stopping because the coin has finally achieved its desired result).

The 1927-S is date that is generally seen with extensive bagmarks but good luster and color. As a result, it is hard to differentiate between MS62’s and MS63’s. But there is enough of a price difference between these two grade levels, that a number of coins have inflated the current PCGS population.

The 1929 is a date that comes very well produced, with great coloration and luster. It is natural for the owner of a choice 1929 to be impressed enough to resubmit it in an attempt for an upgrade. The current PCGS population stands at eighty-four coins in MS63 which is much higher than the actual number of coins graded.

The next thing to consider is each issue in the series and its in-grade rarity versus its price. Are there certain St. Gaudens double eagles that are undervalued or overvalued? By examining their rarity in both MS64 and MS65 and comparing this to their comparative price levels, some interesting conclusions can be reached.

Analysis: There are no undervalued MS64 common date Saints. This makes sense when one considers that this is a market that is very frequently traded. In such an active market, it is not likely that many dates will fall through the cracks. An issue that is probably overpriced in MS64 is the 1907 No Motto. However, part of this can be ascribed to the fact that it is the first collectible issue with the date in Arabic Numerals. The closest thing to a “sleeper” in this group is the 1923-D which, it seems, should be worth about $100-150 more than it currently is.

Analysis: This information clearly shows that there a few scarce date MS64 St. Gaudens double eagles that are overvalued and a few that are undervalued.

The issues that are overvalued include the 1907 High Relief, the 1913-S and the 1926-S. The High Relief is really an issue that has to be treated as a separate entity as it has a level of demand that transcends any other issue in the series. But it should also be pointed out that this issue has been skillfully promoted for the last year or two and prices in all grades have risen to the level where we would have to wonder how much higher they can go before they deflate.

The 1913-S is an interesting case study. It was formerly very scarce in MS64 but a large group of pieces has been working its way onto the market for the past five or so years.

The relative availability of the 1926-S in MS64 is a bit of a surprise to us and we would suggest that the population in MS64 is inflated by resubmissions. This is a very rare and valuable coin in MS65 and it is likely that at least a few high end MS64’s have been through the grading services enough to make the current population seemingly much larger than the real number.

The undervalued issues in MS64 are the 1909/8, 1911, 1912 and 1915. There is an obvious similarity that links all four dates: they are Philadelphia issues and the mintmarked Saints traditionally generate more interest among collectors than their non-mintmarked counterparts.

The 1909/8 is probably undervalued due to the fact that not every date collector of Saints regards this issue as an integral member of the set. In some people’s opinion, having a “regular” 1909 is good enough and there is no reason to purchase what is perceived as a variety. We personally disagree with this sentiment and find the 1909/8 to be a very interesting coin with a great story: it is the only overdate in this series and one of only two 20th century U.S. gold coins that are overdated (the 1901/0-S half eagle is the other).

It is harder to say why the 1911,1912 and 1915 Saints are undervalued. Part of the reason is that MS64 examples of these dates typically are not appealing. And, as stated above, they are Philadelphia issues. We like all three and feel they are very good value in MS64.

Analysis: The Group III and Group II dates in MS65 are far less accurate from a rarity and price standpoint than the more common dates in the series. Expensive, popular dates like this tend to be submitted multiples times to PCGS; an understandable scenario when a coin like a 1927-S can jump in value over $50,000 between MS64 and MS65.

That said, what information can we garner from this chart? A few things are clear. Firstly, the population figures for the 1908-S and the 1929 in MS64 are significantly inflated by resubmissions. The population for the 1931 seems slightly inflated as well.

The 1927-S is the most undervalued rare date Saint in MS64. It is the third rarest issue in terms of total number graded but only the sixth highest priced. The 1925-S also seems to be somewhat undervalued as it is the fifth rarest issue in this elite group of twelve but it has the seventh highest price.

Another date worthy of discussion is the 1908-S which also appears to be undervalued in MS64. According to the numbers above, it is the eighth rarest issue but priced only as the twelfth rarest. Part of this discrepancy has to do with the perception that this date is not as rare as the others in this list. This is true from the standpoint of absolute rarity (i.e., the total number of coins known in all grades). But the 1908-S is a true condition rarity that becomes very scarce in MS62, rare in MS63 and very rare in MS64 or better.

Analysis: Given the popularity of MS65 Saints, and the degree to which they actively trade, it should not come as a surprise that there are just a handful of undervalued common date issues. The three that stand out are the 1910-D, 1914-D and 1926. The 1910-D is the fifth rarest of the common dates in MS65 but it has the seventh highest price. At its current CDN Ask of $2700, it seems like a very good value. The 1914-D is another issue that could rise 10-20% in price. The 1926 is certainly not a scarce issue in MS65 but it should probably sell for a small premium over the far more common 1924, 1927 and 1928.

An estimated five or six Proofs are known making this the most "common" date of this type in Proof.

There are two overvalued common date MS65 issues. These are the 1907 No Motto and the 1922. The 1907 No Motto, as stated above, is an issue that is in demand with collectors because of its first year of type status. The 1922 does not have this status and it appears that its population in MS65 has jumped appreciably in the past year; probably as the result of a hoard being graded by PCGS.

Analysis: We find this list to be surprising that there are fewer anomalies than we would have expected.

There is one issue that stands out as being overvalued in MS65 and this is, surprise, surprise, the 1907 High Relief. But popularity goes along way in this series and despite the fact that it is only the least scarce of these twenty-one issues in MS65, it is tied with the vastly rarer 1924-S for third highest current value in MS65. And in spite of this obvious value/rarity discrepancy, Gem High Reliefs are as liquid as any issue in this series.

The undervalued issues in MS65 and fairly similar to those discussed above in Chart Five. The three that standout are the 1909/8, the 1912 and, most notably, the 1913. The obvious trend here is that these are three Philadelphia issues and these are clearly not as popular as the branch mint issues.

The 1913 is an extremely interesting issue in MS65. PCGS has graded just six coins in this grade, making it one of the rarest Saints of any rarity classification in Gem Uncirculated. In spite of this fact, it has just the thirteenth highest published price level of these twenty-one dates. We should add in closing that a properly graded, attractive PCGS 1913 Saint would probably sell for considerably more than $27,500 if available. Nonetheless, it appears to be a much overlooked coin in higher grades.

Analysis: Before we get into the analysis of these rare dates, an explanation is in order. Because of the rarity and importance of these twelve dates, we have included not only the coins graded MS65 but those in grades higher than this. This total number graded is perhaps more reflective of the true rarity of these dates than just the MS65 population alone.

There is a fundamental flaw in the concept of looking at these dates and analyzing their price and rarity relationship. A coin like the 1927-D is an incredible rarity from the standpoint of overall rarity but it is not the rarest regular issue Saint Gaudens double eagle in MS65 and higher grades (that honor goes to the 1921). This skews the price of the 1927-D in higher grades and makes it seem overpriced in MS65 even though it most clearly is not.

There is one rare date Saint that is clearly undervalued in MS65 and higher grades: the 1925-S. There are only three examples graded MS65 or better, making this issue tied for second rarest in Gem grades along with the 1920-S. But the 1925-S has only the seventh highest CDN Bid in MS65.

It is hard to state that any of these rare and popular issues are overvalued in MS65 and higher grades but the two issues that seem a bit overvalued relative to their number(s) graded in MS65 and above are the 1930-S and the 1931. The 1930-S is comparable in high grade rarity to the 1927-S but has a much higher price level. The important point to remember is that the 1930-S is a rarer date from an overall perspective than the 1927-S and the 1930-S is unavailable in “affordable” lower grades unlike the 1927-S which can be found in AU50 to AU58.

In conclusion, the St. Gaudens double eagle series appears to be one of the best researched areas in numismatics due to the frequency with which these coins trade. The one exception to this rule is for the rare to very rare dates in Gem condition which are clearly worth considerably more than the current published price levels.

There are still some dates that are still undervalued. As discussed above, a number of the Philadelphia issues from the 1910’s seem like very good deals. A few also seem overvalued with the 1907 High Relief, 1913-S and 1926-S coming to mind.

What ultimately matters with this series is supply versus demand. If the number of serious Saint collectors continues to increase as much as it has in the past few years, it will become hard to call any issue in this series “overvalued.” As an example, the High Relief has all the classic signs of being an overvalued issue yet it remains an incredibly popular and liquid coin.

Before we close this article, there is one other interesting point to consider. Do mintages figures and rarity have any relationship in this series? Generally speaking, if a coin has a low mintage figure, it is rare. Is this the case with Saints? The chart below shows the ten lowest mintage figures for this series and compares it with the ten rarest dates in terms of the total recorded in all grades by PCGS.

Analysis: This chart shows that there is almost no correlation between original mintage figures and rarity levels in the Saint Gaudens series. As an example, the ultra-rare 1927-D is not even in the top ten when it comes to original mintage figures yet it is clearly the rarest regular issue date in this series. Original mintage figures do not take into account contemporary meltings which greatly affect the late date or hoards of coins which have made issues such as the 1913-S far more available than its original mintage would suggest.

For more information on St. Gaudens Double Eagles please feel free to contact Pinnacle Rarities at (800) 724-7642.

© Copyright 2005, Pinnacle Rarities, Inc. All rights reserved.

Back